Os observadores tendem a apelidar estas coisas de afro-optimismo!
Eu e tentando passar por cima de análises demasiado escatológicas, chamo a isto um 1º aviso...
Para que conste!
SPEECH BY F W DE KLERK TO STONEHAGE
CAPE TOWN
28 SEPTEMBER 2010
BACK TO REALITY
Last month I addressed an audience of businessmen and politicians in London on the heritage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. I said that it had been like a Cinderella fairy tale for South Africa. For a magic moment we had been the international belle of the ball, resplendently decked out in national flags, shining new stadiums, and above all, a remarkable sense of goodwill and national unity.
But, inevitably the clock had struck twelve and Cinderella had been forced to flee down the palace steps, back to the pumpkins, mice and ugly step-sisters of the South African reality.
Now the situation is back to normal: At last week’s National General Council meeting Julius Malema continued to bellow about the nationalization of the mines. President Zuma and Trevor Manuel - with a weather eye on international credit ratings - continued to resist such initiatives. The divergent factions within the ANC Alliance continued to circle one another, jockeying for position in the run-up to the 2012 National Conference.
Cinderella was back in the kitchen, sitting on the ash-heap. The Afro-pessimists had returned in strength, confident that South Africa’s World Cup success was just a flash in the pan.
The reality is that South Africa has never been an easy country. Virtually every observer who has visited the country since 1652 has said that South Africa could never succeed. We have not been able to enjoy the luxury of complacency. Most of our history has been characterised by uncertainty and relentless struggle.
Despite this,
● we have consistently confounded the pessimists;
● we have repeatedly risen from the ashes;
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● to the amazement of the international community we reached a negotiated solution to the apparently hopeless racial impasse of the 1980s;
● despite the dire predictions that accompanied our transition to majority rule, we are still a non-racial constitutional democracy and still have a vibrant free market economy; and
● we have weathered the global economic crisis better than most other countries.
One of the requirements of the complex challenges that we have faced throughout our history is a never-ending need for introspection. What are our strengths and weaknesses? What are the opportunities and threats that confront us?
I would like to present a quick SWOT analysis of our national condition:
Under strengths we can list the following:
● We are a constitutional democracy with an effective Bill of Rights; independent courts and a media that is still free – despite current threats;
● Generally sound macro-economic management has assured seventeen years of uninterrupted economic growth - until the global economic downturn.
● We have the 24th largest economy in the world. We produce 35% of the GDP of sub-Saharan Africa with only 6.5% of its population.
● Our public debt is less than 36% of GDP - and external debt is only 16% of GDP.
● Our natural resources are legendary - including gold and diamonds, platinum group metals and abundant and inexpensive coal.
● Nevertheless, tourism now contributes 8.3% of GDP - considerably more than mining. We have superb game parks, mountains and beach resorts. Cape Town is one of the world’s premier destinations with great facilities including three of the world’s top 100 restaurants.
● Automobile production now contributes almost as much to GDP as mining. In 2008 we produced 600 000 vehicles of which 170 000 were exported.
● According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report our auditing and reporting standards and regulation of securities exchanges are the best in the world. We are also in the top
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seven with regard to the soundness of our banks, financial services and the efficacy of corporate boards. The Report also gives us high marks for the quality of our management schools, our anti-monopoly policy and local supplier quality.
● South Africa has resumed its position as a respected and influential member of the international community.
Our weaknesses are the subject of nightly dinner party discussions:
● We have made virtually no progress with the elimination of inequality since 1994.
● Linked to inequality is poverty. 42% of our population lives on less than two dollars a day. Almost 15 million South Africans subsist on children’s, old-age and disability allowances.
● One of the root causes of poverty is unemployment. Between 35% and 40% of black South Africans are unemployed or have given up their search for employment. One of the main causes of unemployment is our dysfunctional labour system. According to the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Report we are in the bottom eight countries in terms of labour-employer relations; flexibility of wage determination and hiring and firing practices.
● Poverty, inequality and unemployment create an environment in which violent crime can flourish. South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world - and the highest rape rate. The World Economic Forum gives us very poor marks for the reliability of police services, for the prevalence of organised crime and the business cost of crime.
● The failure of our education system is inexorably intertwined with inequality, poverty, unemployment and crime. Only 22% of children who entered the school system in 1995 passed matric in 2007 and only 5.2% did so with university exemption. Only 1.5% passed maths at the higher grade. According to the Global Competitiveness report our education system is the ninth worst in the world.
● A major contributor to all these weaknesses is the incapacity of many government departments and institutions, particularly at the provincial and municipal levels. This weakness is a major constraint in the Government’s ability to tackle new challenges and implement new programmes – such as the proposed National Health Insurance scheme.
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We also have exciting opportunities:
● Even our weaknesses present us with opportunities. If we adopt correct approaches, we can do so much better in our efforts to create jobs; to improve our education system; to fight crime; to reduce poverty; to promote equality; and to improve government capabilities.
● The Zuma presidency presents us with special opportunities. I have found him to be pragmatic and a good listener. We should accept his invitation to dialogue.
● The growth of our vibrant multiracial middle class brings with it enormous opportunities for an expanding domestic market.
● Our special position in Africa presents superb opportunities to expand business activities in the continent. Many South African companies are already deriving huge success from these opportunities.
● We are well-placed to serve as a bridge between Africa and the West, and between the developed and developing worlds. We also have the opportunity of setting an example for harmonious relations in complex multicultural societies.
● Our natural beauty; our rich variety of animals and plants and our cultural diversity create enormous opportunities for the expansion of tourism.
● The FIFA World Cup has presented us with unparalleled opportunities to market our country and our economy.
Apart from global environmental and economic threats, we face a number of domestic threats.
● The greatest of these is a reversion to ideology. The ideology of apartheid should have taught us that policies should be based on pragmatism, consultation, the rule of law and concern for well-being of ordinary people.
○ Ideologies - like the National Democratic Revolution and the SACP’s mid-term vision of worker hegemony - are irreconcilable with the Constitution and with everything that mankind has learned during the past fifty years.
○ Attempts to impose demographic representivity in all areas of government and the economy, coupled with deployment of under-qualified and inexperienced cadres to key posts, are primary causes of governmental dysfunctionality.
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○ We need balanced land reform; we need much greater black participation in the economy; we need rational medical insurance reform. But we cannot afford ideological approaches to these challenges.
● We must guard against racial polarization spurred on by right-wing extremists or radical African nationalists. We must not allow the Julius Malemas and the right-wing rumour-mongers to jeopardise growing inter-racial harmony.
● Corruption can become a cancer in our economy and in our society. Our ranking in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index has slid inexorably from 23rd position in 1996 to 54th place 2008. Mind you, in 2008 we were still one place ahead of Italy and three places ahead of Greece.
● Despite greatly improved access to anti-retrovirals, AIDS continues to kill five thousand people every week.
● The current moves to curb access to public information and to regulate the press through a Media Appeals Tribunal are serious threats to our democracy. Despite assurances to the contrary, they are motivated by a wish to limit media reporting on maladministration and corruption on the one hand; and by the view that the media’s proper role is to support the developmental state and the national democratic revolution.
● We must resist any further attempts to undermine the independence of key state institutions. The appointment of Menzi SImelane as National Director of Public Prosecutions was a major concern - as was the abolition last year of the Scorpions. We must jealously defend the independence of the courts.
● We are also threatened by the loss of skills. Since 1990 between 750 000 and a million South Africans have emigrated.
● Finally, we are threatened by the failure of privileged South Africans, whatever their race, to use their talents and resources more effectively to build a better and fairer society for all South Africans.
We sometimes feel overwhelmed by such threats. Too many of us think that we are powerless. We relegate ourselves too easily to the sidelines and too readily become marginalized armchair critics. This is fundamentally wrong. The whole point of our new constitutional system is that it empowers us all.
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South Africans who wish to ensure that the constitutional centre holds are not powerless:
● They are armed with an excellent Constitution.
○ they should make use of it to claim their rights and to defend the rights of others.
○ they should actively support the political party of their choice and work to expand our multiparty democracy;
○ they should join and support NGOs that are working for a better South Africa.
● They should use our free media to promote constitutional values and economic freedoms. They can win on the battlefield of ideas because their arguments are so much stronger than those of their opponents.
● They should resolutely oppose any threats to the Constitution – such as the current assault on the media.
● They are not alone. Those who support constitutional governance and free markets are part of an emerging global consensus.
● They should use their considerable economic resources to support political parties and NGOs that are also dedicated to the preservation of the moderate centre.
● They should engage government in rigorous debate over the dangerous foundations of many of its current policies.
● They should offer their skills and resources to assist government to address the failure of service delivery in areas of education, health, justice and municipal services.
I am confident that if we can do these things we will once again prove the pessimists wrong. I do not believe that the ANC will be successful with its current assault on the media. The Protection of Information Bill will be withdrawn or satisfactorily amended; and the Media Appeals Tribunal will be shelved or recast in a form that will be constitutionally acceptable. The current proposals relating to land tenure will wither in the light of national and international economic scrutiny. Our farmers, together with government, will hammer out a workable approach to land reform. Proposals for the nationalisation of the mines will simply not survive the national and international scrutiny to which they will be subjected.
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The ANC will successfully resolve the divisions within its Alliance. Or even better, it will split and open the way to national politics based on social and economic policies rather than on race.
As I told my London audience earlier this month, the glorious weeks of the FIFA World Cup are receding further and further into our collective memory - but some things will remain, Including our ability to compete with the best in the world; Including the world-class infrastructure that was created for the event; and Including the natural beauty and the warmth and hospitality of our people that the World Cup has introduced to hundreds of millions of potential tourists.
As we all know, Cinderella, in her headlong flight down the palace steps, left something of her magic behind in the form of the crystal slipper that was retrieved by Prince Charming. The FIFA World Cup left us with a similar magic legacy: it is the shining vision of the brilliant, multifaceted nation we can and will become. In short, South Africa will continue to prove the pessimists wrong.
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